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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/17/18 0854Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 IR_10.7 0830; SSMIS/AMSU 0810; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES 15 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT; HOWEVER, AS SMALLER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IDENTIFIED UPSTREAM OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE WAVE FORM APPROACH, RAINFALL RATES MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LEADING TO AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE QUANTITIES FROM THE SSMIS/AMSU SENSORS INDICATE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.67 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE ENERGY AVAILABLE IS ESTIMATED FROM PREVIOUS SOUNDINGS TO BE ABOUT 1150 J/KG IN TERMS OF QUANTIFIED INSTABILITY. THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS FROM OAHU SOUTH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0854-1354Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS FROM HILO INDICATE HEAVY RAIN AT THE STATION AS OF 0832Z. RADAR SHOWS THE APPROACH OF SHOWERS FROM THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH INCREASING DBZ LEVELS ON THE ISLAND OF KAHULUI AS OF 0845Z. HIGHER STORM TOPS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR AND AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COOLER CLOUD TOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES MAY ACT TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL RATES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2239 16033 1844 16168 1832 15472 2233 15366 2239 16036 . NNNN |
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