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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/14/19 2053Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 2042Z HANNA/LEVINE . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RIDGE AMPLIFICATION INTO PORTIONS OF AK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS RESULTED IN THE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND AMPLIFYING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PAC. SINCE THAT TIME, THE SW PORTION OF THIS TROF HAS CUT OFF AND RETROGRADED INTO THE W PORTIONS OF THE HI ISLANDS WITH PATTERN NOW OVER THE CNTRL PAC SETTING UP INTO A SHORT TERM REX BLOCK PATTERN. BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MODESTLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MODEST CAPE CENTERED OVER THE W ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. SINCE 12Z, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED S SUGGESTING THAT STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM WITH MID LEVEL COOLING OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DAY TIME HEATING WOULD SUGGEST THAT BOTH INSTABILITY AND A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WAS NOT PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS AND MOSTLY RUNNING AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES, THE AMOUNT OF FORCING WAS STILL ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS SEEN ON THE MOST RECENT SSMI/S PASS WHERE LOCALIZED 15-20KM AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES WERE RUNNING AS HIGH AS 0.70"/HR WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED 1.0-2.0"/HR RAINFALL RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE CORES. SEE NO REASON THAT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT DAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO POSSIBLY LIFT NE AHEAD OF POSSIBLE UPSTREAM KICKER NOW AROUND 165E. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2280 16023 2262 15830 2176 15624 2052 15446 1907 15403 1793 15539 1884 15700 2033 15783 2144 16025 2196 16136 . NNNN |
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