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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/15/19 0150Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 WV/IR, AMSU 1949Z; MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...UPPER LOW WITH HEAVY RAIN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-17 WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS PROVIDING A SYNOPTIC LIFT MECHANISM ACROSS THE STATE, BUT IS FOCUSED ON THE MIDDLE ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO OAHU. AN AMSU PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY DEPICTED PWAT LEVELS FROM 1.0-1.5" ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER PW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. 00Z RAOBS AT PHLI AND PHTO BOTH DEPICTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND NEAR-SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB. GOES-17 IR TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH OCCASINALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION DOES APPEAR. SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS ENCOURAGING TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHERN FACES OF THE ISLANDS. COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE LOW, AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER ARE SEEING SLOWER-MOVING CELLS THAN THOSE AREAS WEST OF THE LOW. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0145-1345Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE ALL THAT MUCH DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE FEATURES TO DISLODGE IT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR DYNAMIC LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE PWAT LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, THE REGION HAS SEEN PERSISTENT RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. FURTHER RAIN MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THAT SOME FLOODING WILL OCCUR. AREAS THAT REMAIN ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE, DUE TO OPPOSING LOWER AND UPPER WIND DIRECTIONS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2274 16116 2268 16100 2262 15409 1821 15387 1809 16119 . NNNN |
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