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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/11/19 1555Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 IR 10.4 1526Z; GLOBAL HYDRO ESTIMATOR 14Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ARRIVING FROM EAST TO WEST . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW HAWAII DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ELEMENTS HAVING ARRIVED AS INDICATED ON RADAR. PHTO SOUNDING HAD A 1228 J/KG CAPE/PW 1.4 IN/-4C LI. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK, A POTENTIAL DYNAMIC LIFTING MECHANISM ABOVE THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND PLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE THE RADAR ECHOES ARE INCREASING AS ARRIVING RAIN BANDS IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI; FURTHERMORE, EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCTS SHOWS ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY IS INCREASING. THE FIRST BAND IMPACTS BIG ISLAND WITH MORE TO WILL FOLLOW AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES CLOSER. 850 MB WINDS ARE AIMED AT THE STEEPEST TOPOGRAPHY OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MAKING LIFT MORE EFFICIENT AS THE STORM IMPACTS CLOSER THE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES CLOSER TO ALL OF HAWAII. COOLING TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING STORM ON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRENGTHENING STORM. THE GLOBAL HYDROESTIMATOR HAS PIXELS EXCEEDING FOUR INCHES ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND, AN INDICATOR OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THEREFORE. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1555-2155Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING MECHANISMS CONTRIBUTING TO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY ARE PRESENT; THEREFORE, EXPECT IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND MAUI IN THE NEAR TERM. LATER, OTHER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BE AFFECTED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2305 16051 2039 15458 1834 15462 2112 16057 2304 16051 . NNNN |
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