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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/01/19 2000Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 IR/WV 1940Z; RADAR . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER PUERTO RICO. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AT 21N/73W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING 17W APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORTING HIGHER MOISTURE QUANTITIES TOWARD PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SATELLITE PW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED TO 1.4 IN OVER PUERTO RICO WITH 1.7 IN. AT LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AS SHORTWAVES APPROACH PR/USVI FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AND INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EASTERLY WAVE SEEN IN LOW CLOUD PATTERNS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON IR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST, UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL BE ENHANCED IN A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AS THESE FEATURES COLLIDE. UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL GENERATE DYNAMIC LIFT AS WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF ALOFT THE UPPER LOW SPREAD OUT IN DIFFLUENT FASHION AID UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED WITH MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO, ESPECIALLY IN THE NW CORNER, WHERE A STORM IS RELATIVELY STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-0000Z...LOWER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY TODAY OVER PUERTO RICO WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH 1.5 PW AND 1400 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT GENERATED WITH AN APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. BUOYANT UPDRAFTS WITH LIFTED INDEX -5C WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. UP STREAM THE BALLOON SOUNDING FROM GUADELOUPE (TFFR) 12Z HAD A 2.3 INCH PW, 1700 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE UP TO 525MB. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NW PUERTO RICO MAY GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. RADAR IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXHAUSTING STORM TOPS AND ALLOWING FOR A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS PARTICULAR LOCATION. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1853 6727 1783 6751 1783 6511 1853 6489 1853 6728 . NNNN |
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