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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/02/19 0400Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 WV-IR, BLENDED TPW, MIMIC-TPW2; GPS TPW; KH . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IN THE VICINITY OF ST. CROIX IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATES TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED JET STREAK. BOTH THE BLENDED TPW, THE MIMIC-TPW2, AND THE GPS TPW PRODUCTS ALSO DEPICT A REGION OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LEEWARD CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ACROSS THE USVI AND INTO PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0400-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WITH THE TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PROVIDING EFFICIENT DIFFLUENT VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE APPROACH FROM THE EAST OF TPW IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE, THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, CURRENTLY HIGHEST OVER ST. CROIX, WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EAST TO WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL PROMOTE SOME OROGRAPHICAL ENHANCEMENT ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE RECORDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ST CROIX, WHICH APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE OTHER VI AS WELL GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1886 6732 1879 6420 1748 6451 1760 6761 . NNNN |
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