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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/04/19 0951Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:0930Z JS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...SATELLITE TRENDS WITH ANOMALOUS STRONG MID/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE NNW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHICH IS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE SE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, WIND FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE ISLANDS BETWEEN CYCLONIC JET MAX WRAPPING AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PROMINENT WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET DIRECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TRENDS FROM MICROWAVE DATA ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE TOWARD THE WESTERN ISLANDS WITH PW VALUES NOW UP TO 1.75". IN ADDITION, TRENDS ARE ALSO SHOWING A BIT OF A NORTHWARD PUSH TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WHICH NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH THIS DIGGING SYSTEM. AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES FROM MICROWAVE DATA A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WERE RUNNING FROM .5"/HR TO AS HIGH AS 1.0"/HR WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE ENHANCED/CONVECTIVE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 150-160W. MICROWAVE AREAL AVERAGE RATES ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN ISLANDS WERE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY AROUND .10"/HR OR SO FROM SSMIS THOUGH IR TRENDS DO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT SHIFTING JUST A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1000-1600Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS THE MID/UPPER CENTER MOVES FARTHER TO THE SE, BELIEVE THIS WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND IS IT INITIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY PROVIDING AN EVENTUAL BOOST TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIHUE IMPLIES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL THOUGH THE OVERALL LIMITING HEAVY RAIN FACTOR WOULD BE THE ANTICIPATED STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BAND AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVELY SHORTER WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2262 15430 1859 15457 1885 16051 2248 16076 . NNNN |
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