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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/11/19 1844Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS/IR 1830Z; SSMIS/AMSU; RADAR 1839Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES SATELLITE SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THEIR BEST FLASH FLOODING ATTRIBUTE. THE SATELLITE DERIVED SSMIS/AMSU PW VALUES ARE IN A RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE WITH LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE STORMS ARE FORMING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS THE EASTERLY WAVE CROSSES AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALLOW STORM UPDRAFTS TO BE REMAIN VIABLE, LEADING TO PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1845-0045Z...LOWER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN STORM UPDRAFTS, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH STORMS FORMING OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1859 6509 1778 6540 1778 6755 1857 6721 1858 6720 . NNNN |
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