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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/29/19 1650Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS/WV 1630; SSMIS/AMSU; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IN A LINE FROM THE NW-SE ACROSS THE USVI. THE SATELLITE DERIVED SSMIS/AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2.3 TO 2.4 INCHES. AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO COINCIDES WITH THE LINE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM THE VIEQUES SOUTH AND EAST WARD ACROSS THE USVI TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW LEVEL SE WINDS ARE OPPOSED TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A NW COMPONENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NW OF PUERTO RICO/USVI AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INDICATED USING STREAM LINE ANALYSIS OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR DYNAMIC LIFT. THE TSJU THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FROM THE 12Z RAOB INDICATED 1800 J/KG CAPE, 500 MB LI=-5C, AND 2.2 IN. PW QUANTITY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE FIELDS EAST OF CUBA/JAMAICA AND WEST OF HAITI ARE MUCH STRONGER AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ISLAND PUERTO RICO AT THE MOMENT IS IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE; WITH ONE OVER THE US/BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST EXTENDING SW FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVING NORTHWEST, WITH RAINFALL HEAVIEST OVER THE USVI AND THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. CONVECTION IS FILLING IN OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING EVENT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1856 6722 1770 6750 1769 6522 1854 6503 1855 6723 . NNNN |
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