|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/04/19 1903Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 1850Z; RADAR 1858; SSMIS/AMSU PW; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 VISIBLE IMAGERY ON SATELLITE SHOWS GROWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL PUERTO RICO SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN JUAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. FROM THE SSMIS/AMSU MOISTURE SENSORS CLOSE TO TWO INCHES PW SURROUNDS PUERTO RICO. CELLS ARE DECAYING AND REGENERATING OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS MOMENT. NONE IN PARTICULAR WILL BE LONG LIVED, BUT OUTFLOW FROM DEGENERATING STORMS MAY FORM NEW CONVECTION, RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AVER SOME AREAS. A CAPE NEAR 1800 J/KG, 5H LI=-6C FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING WITH BETTER MOISTURE, AVAILABLE ENERGY, HIGHER PW=2.5 IN. AND A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED TOWARDS PUERTO RICO FROM THE REINFORCING THE MOISTURE, ENERGY AND INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE ISLAND. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2300Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO OVER THE MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH A LOW LEVEL PROBABILITY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING; HOWEVER, THERE IS CYCLONIC MESOSCALE CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON THE RADAR ECHO PATTERN WHICH MAY ACT TO GENERATE BETTER UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1854 6731 1853 6557 1790 6558 1791 6730 1789 6731 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|