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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/05/19 1832Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS/IR 18Z;SSMIS/AMSU PW;LTG STRIKE DENSITY;FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS STREAMING TOWARDS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BE LONGER LIVED DUE TO THE FACT THAT AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL, EVACUATION OF MASS ALOFT IS ALLOWING STORMS TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS, AND IS FAVORING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS. SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE RANGES FROM 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES AROUND PUERTO RICO PER SSMIS/AMSU SENSORS. EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS REINFORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 76-78F. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE CONVERGENT OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL LAND VERSUS SEA HEATING. A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH PUERTO RICO, PERHAPS EVEN STRENGTHENING THE ONGOING CONVECTION OR GENERATING MORE STORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. GROWING CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS. THE EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY COUNT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO AS OF 18Z. FLASH FLOODING MAY BEGIN SHORTLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE WITH AS THE TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVEL ENHANCES UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-0030Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GROWING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL THAT CAN RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE ENERGY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER PUERTO RICO. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL BE MOST IMMEDIATELY AFFECTED. FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE UP STREAM TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO. FLASH FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1863 6723 1863 6722 1859 6476 1784 6491 1785 6745 . NNNN |
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