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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/07/19 1901Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 CHANNEL 7 1840Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CROSSED HAITI AND IS ABOUT TO CROSS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, REINFORCING MOISTURE TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. 1.67 PW/-7C LI/CAPE 2800 J/KG FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING AT TJSJ WITH HIGHER PWS NEAR 2.0 INCHES UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS SE OF PUERTO RICO. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS USING GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DIFFLUENT PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO UPWARD MOTION OVER PUERTO RICO, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BE LONGER LIVED, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY NATURE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND GROWTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO ON MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES. CLOUDS GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE WV SATELLITE IMAGES. LOWER LEVEL WINDS DIRECTLY OPPOSE WINDS ALOFT WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD AND ALLOW STORMS TO BE STATIONARY OR EVEN BUILD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...A GROWING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FLASH FLOODING OVER THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND SOME SLIGHT ROTATION WITHIN THE RADAR ECHO PATTERN MAY BE AN INDICATOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN THE AREA OF CONVECTION. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1861 6732 1861 6732 1858 6518 1789 6531 1790 6747 . NNNN |
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