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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/08/19 1757Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 IR/WV,LTG DENSITY,BLENDED-TPW,OBS;MC . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN OVER PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT GOES-16 IR IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY DATA HAS SHOWN A RAPID INCREASE IN ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PW AT 1.82 INCHES, WITH A CAPE VALUE OF NEARLY 2400 J/KG. NOTABLY, THIS SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KTS AT BOTH 850 MB AND 300 MB, BUT THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTIONS WERE ALMOST DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED, WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WV IMAGERY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS ENCOURAGING DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER THE ISLAND, PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INCREASING AND CONTINUED CONVECTION. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF PUERTO RICO, POTENTIALLY RIGHT UP UNTIL SUNSET. WITH TERRAIN-ENHANCED LIFT AS A TRIGGER AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT, THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENCOURAGE DEEP CONVECTION AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE OPPOSING LOWER AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION FAIRLY STATIONARY, LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1884 6771 1883 6511 1752 6512 1755 6770 1880 6772 . NNNN |
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