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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/25/19 1222Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09/13 1200Z; AMSU 0704Z;MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...APPROACH OF UPPER LOW WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A SERIES OF RELATED SURFACE TROFS ARE SEEN ON GOES WV IMAGERY CENTERED 450NM NW OF KAUAI, MOVING EASTWARD. THE NEAREST OF THESE TROFS IS CROSSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS NOTED BY SEVERAL CELLS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN GOES IR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED LIGHTNING. AT PRESENT, THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE LOCATED WELL SSW OF KAUAI, BUT DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE. AN AMSU PASS FROM ABOUT 5 HOURS AGO NOTED A BROAD STREAM OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW, WITH PW LEVELS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS. THE SAME PASS DETECTED RAIN RATES OF 0.7 INCHES/HOUR IN CONVECTION, WHICH COINCIDED WITH WARMER IR CLOUD TOPS AT THAT TIME. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1230-1830Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE TROF WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH NOT EVERYWHERE WILL RECEIVE CONVECTION, AND CELLS INDUCED PURELY BY THE TROF SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SERIOUS FLOODING ISSUES. OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR LONGER-DURATION HEAVY RAIN, WHICH WOULD FALL ON STEEPER TERRAIN AND CREATE RUNOFF ISSUES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2389 16102 2007 15350 1704 15348 2079 16107 2374 16105 . NNNN |
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