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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/26/19 0200Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH_10.4 IR/CH_09 WV 0130Z; AMSU 0030Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 17 IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING TOPS ON IR GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE OVER THE ISLANDS OF OAHU AND NIIHAU AND A LINE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON AMSU. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MULTIPLE VORTEX AREAS CENTERED NEAR 28.75N/163.75W IS WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER MOLOKAI, EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND DUE NORTH FROM MOLOKAI/LANAI TO 23N/157W SUPPORTED BY 00Z RAOB OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. EMPIRICAL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PRESENT WOULD INCLUDE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH A PLUME OF AMSU PW QUANTITIES OVER 2.25 IN. OVER THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY GFS PW FORECASTS. 850MB THETA E QUANTITIES ARE 342K OVER THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WITH A NOTABLE GRADIENT OF THETA E VALUES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OF 10 K DEG AND 328K AT THE BIG ISLAND; A TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR NEAR TO SUCH GRADIENTS IS COMMON. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS IN 24H ARE 50 M AT LIHUE AND 30 M OVER PHTO AND UPPER-LEVEL VECTORS ARE EVIDENT OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ATTM. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING WITH PRESENT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, 2.15 PW/2300 J/KG/-6 LI PHLI 00Z RAOB. PVA AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED S/WV WITHIN THE FLOW WILL AID IN GENERATING UPWARD LIFT. AMSU/SSMIS RR 0.25 TO 0.45 IN/HR SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE MEASURED AT MESSAGE TIME. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-1000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WITH THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PROGRESSING FROM TOWARDS OAHU LATER IN THE OUTLOOK. A WEB GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE IN APPROXIMATELY 15-30 MINUTES FROM THE ISSUANCE OF THIS SPE MESSAGE. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2389 16102 2007 15350 1704 15348 2079 16107 2374 16105 . NNNN |
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