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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/26/19 1228Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09/13 1200Z;AMSU 0748Z;12Z RAOBS;MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN WITH UPPER LOW . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE UPPER LOW NOTED IN WV IMAGERY LOCATED NEAR 29.6N/162.5W CONTINUES TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN AMSU PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN AXIS OF MAX PW THAT CONTINUES TO BE POSITIONED SW-NE ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS, INCLUDING KAUAI AND OAHU, WITH PW VALUES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES. IR CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINTAINING THEIR COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH DERIVED CLOUD TOP HEIGHTS UP TO 50000 FEET STRETCHING FROM SW OF KAUAI TO E OF OAHU. THE AMSU PASS INDICATED WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HOUR WITHIN THIS CONVECTION, SUGGESTING SPOTS OF EVEN MORE INTENSE RAIN ON SMALLER SCALES. THE PHLI 12Z RAOB SHOWED INDICATED A FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILE, WHILE THE PHTO RAOB INDICATED MUCH DRIER AIR OUTSIDE OF THE PW AXIS (1.44 INCHES). THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTED CONVERGENT WINDS BELOW 700MB WITH HINTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 925MB, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE ACTIVE CONVECTION BETWEEN THEM. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1230-1830Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS, INCLUDING OAHU AND MOLOKAI, AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PROVIDES FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR COVNECTION WITHIN THE GREATEST MOISTURE. THE PW AXIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD, WHICH WILL KEEP THE EASTERNMOST ISLANDS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. STILL, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT, ALLOWING FOR TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVECTION TO BECOME DEEPER AND LINGER, POTENTIALLY PRESENTING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS AS WELL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2302 16050 2056 15420 1821 15536 2064 16173 2301 16049 . NNNN |
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