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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/28/19 0841Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09/10.4/13;AMSU 0800Z;00Z RAOBS;00Z GFS;JL . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE UPPER LOW VISIBLE IN GOES-17 WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NW, WITH A BAND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRAILING BEHIND. A REGION OF MAX PW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS, ENABLING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS CONVECTIVE CELLS BLOSSOM. THE LATEST AMSU AERIAL AVERAGE RAIN RATE PRODUCT FROM 0800Z SUGGESTS VALUES NEARING 1.5 IN/HR OVER NIIHAU, WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF KAUAI SPORTS AN AVERAGE AROUND 0.75 IN/HR. CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE COOLING WITH NEW CONVECTION IN THE GOES-17 CH 10.4 IR IMAGERY, WITH INTENSE MOISTURE ALSO DEPICTED BY THE GOES-17 CH 9 WV IMAGERY. 00Z RAOB FROM PHLI SUGGESTS CAPE AROUND 1104 J/KG AND A RATHER SATURATED PROFILE. ADDITIONALLY, 00Z RUN OF GFS SUGGESTS CONVERGENT 850MB WINDS OVER THE AXIS OF GREATEST PW, TOPPING 2.25", FLOWING OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0845-1445Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND WEAKEN, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS IS POSSIBLE. AS WINDS FROM THE S CONVERGE AND TAP INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS, THEY MAY TRAIN ALONG OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AN ALREADY SOAKED REGION. EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AS LOW WEAKENS AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. EXPECT EASTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS TO BE FREE OF BIGGEST PRECIPITATION THREAT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2236 16031 2232 15930 2171 15920 2170 16027 . NNNN |
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