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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/28/19 1454Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09/13 1430Z;AMSU 0628Z;RADAR;OBS;MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN HAWAII . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-17 IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTABLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400NM WNW OF KAUAI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEING DRAWN INTO THIS CIRCULATION IS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BUT GAINS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WEST OF ABOUT 158W, RESULTING IN CONVERGENCE. THIS IS MANIFESTED BY BOTH THE MOTION OF WARMER CLOUDS AND A ZONE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS INDICATING CONVECTION ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU. THESE COLD TOPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND REGENERATED NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN UPPER LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH FROM KAUAI, ALSO AT A DISTANCE OF APPROXIMATELY 400NM. THIS IS PROMOTING DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW, WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS CONVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AN AMSU PASS FROM OVERNIGHT DEPICTS A BAND OF ENHANCED PW COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WITH LEVELS OF 2.2-2.4 INCHES OR HIGHER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z PHLI RAOB, WHICH MEASURED 2.35 INCHES OF PW IN A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC UP TO 400MB. NUMEROUS OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS KAUAI HAVE RECORDED MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, MAKING FOR VERY WET GROUND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2300Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, SO IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN HAWAII FOR THE DURATION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. CURRENT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOW FALLING BETWEEN KAUAI AND OAHU AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD, BUT WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN THAT PARTICULAR AREA SUGGEST THAT THIS RAIN SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES OAHU. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO AFFECT KAUAI THROUGHOUT THE DAY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ENABLES ANY CONVECTION TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVELY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY WET GROUND AND STEEPER TERRAIN. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2307 16083 2018 15353 1766 15499 2100 16178 2300 16084 . NNNN |
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