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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/14/19 1825Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 190714/1750Z GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED GROWING COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE MID LEVEL WV IMAGERY OBSERVED DRIER AIR PROGRESSING FROM THE EAST OFF TOWARDS THE WEST INTO EASTERN PUETRO RICO LIKELY ANOTHER LARGE REGION OF SAHARAN DUST PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION, BUT A FAIRLY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH A REGION OF HIGHER TPW SOUTH AND WEST NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING ANALYSIS FROM TJSJ OBSERVED SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG ALSO NEGATIVE LI, AND TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.80" SUPPORTING QUIET A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE REGION. THE LATEST GOES16 VIS IMAGERY OBSERVED HIGHER CLOUD TOPS AND CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-2200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS WHICH HAVE OBSERVED HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SUPPORT OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, PEAK DIURNAL INFLUENCE, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION ENDING THE RISK LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1901 6769 1870 6503 1763 6523 1773 6782 1856 6775 . NNNN |
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