|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/19/19 1812Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 190719/1740 GOES16 CH14 IR_11.2 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF COOLER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE REGION AND HAS HELPED TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST GOES16 VIS IMAGERY OBSERVED OUTFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIION SOUTH OF THE ISLAND EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT IS NOW PROGRESSING OVER THE ISLAND. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS INITIATED CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN PRESENT IN THE REGION. A MOISTURE AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WITH HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING EAST TO WEST WITH THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING FROM TJSJ SUPPORTS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH OBSERVED SBCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AS WELL AS LI OF -8, TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.75", MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6 C/KM, AND FAIR UNI DIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-2200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD WILL LIKELY TRAIN BRIEFLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND TILL THE LOW LEVEL FORCING DISSIPATES AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1879 6781 1875 6478 1756 6505 1742 6778 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|