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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/25/19 1800Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 NIR_1.38 1750Z; RADAR 1752Z; SSMIS/AMSU PW; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 16 SHOWS COOLING TOPS OF CLOUDS WITH A PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVING NORTHWEST. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING BUT IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST RATHER RAPIDLY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING, BUT IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. SUBTLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT VW SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH MAY GENERATE LIFT WITHIN THE WAVE AND SUPPLY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WHICH MAY ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS. THE MOISTURE ESTIMATED FROM REMOTE SENSING INSTRUMENTS ON BOARD SATELLITE REVEALS PW QUANTITIES NEAR 2.0 INCHES PER SSMIS/AMSU SENSORS. SAN JUAN METRO MAY SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN URBAN FLASH FLOODING AND AROUND THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL MAY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAOB SOUNDINGS FROM UPSTREAM TO THE SE OF PUERTO RICO FROM TFFR INDICATED 3000 J/KG, A LI=-9C AND A PW QUANTITY OF 2.11 INCHES, ALL INDICATORS OF AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL ENERGY AND BUOYANCY NEEDED FOR CONVECTION AS WELL AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE QUANTITIES FOR BETTER RAINFALL. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-2100Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO MAY GENERATE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6727 1856 6510 1788 6533 1789 6753 1856 6728 . NNNN |
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