|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/29/19 1815Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS/WV/IR 18Z; RAOB ANALYSIS; AMSU 0930Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO, WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SAN JUAN METRO. THE MAIN CIRCULATION POSITION 16N/64.5W 10Z ESTIMATED IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE IR SHOWS COOLING TOPS OVER THE THE NORTHWEST CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTH. BLENDED TPW SHOWS HIGHER PW QUANTITIES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES UPSTREAM AT LOW LEVELS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ABOVE 16K FEET, PW=2.11 INCHES AND ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION 1200 J/KG WITH AN LI=-4C FROM THE TJSJ MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE IS IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. WITHIN AN APPROACHING BAND OF HIGHER BT TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ORIENT ITSELF OVER PUERTO RICO INDICATED ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG THIS AXIS OF INFERRED HIGHER MOISTURE QUANTITIES FED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY STEER THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER PUERTO RICO, MAKING HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS PROBABLE WITH STRONG CONVECTION. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1815-0030Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GROWING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PUERTO RICO ARE EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES. EASTERLY WINDS FEED DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO DEVELOPING STORMS QUITE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. URBAN EFFECTS OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS HIGH VOLUMES OF WATER FLOWING THROUGH VALLEYS AND CANYONS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN BE ANTICIPATED. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVE VALUES INDICATING STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1863 6407 1757 6450 1758 6769 1862 6727 1863 6728 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|