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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/19 1300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 1230Z; AMSU; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND USVI, UPDATED WITH NEW INFORMATION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER PUERTO RICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING THIS MOMENT. IR SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING TOPS FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND. THE PATH STORMS ARE TAKING IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SATELLITE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOW A TALL NARROW SOUNDING WITH A MEASURED 2.44 IN. PW, WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL LAYER THAT MAY ALLOW FOR EVAPORATION, COOLING AND DESTABILIZATION. 850MB THETA E QUANTITIES ARE 344K. THE SAN JUAN METRO WILL SEE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM AS RADAR SHOWS CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE ECHO PATTERN AND HEAVIER ELEMENTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN AS THE CENTER MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. AMSU RAINFALL RATES ESTIMATED AT 1.33 INCHES PER HOUR WOULD SUFFICE TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODING IF SUCH RATES WERE TO VERIFY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1300-1800Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVIER RAINFALL IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SAN JUAN IS REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AT 1244Z WITH OVER AN INCH SINCE 10Z WHEN RAIN BEGAN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6719 1857 6719 1854 6547 1779 6575 1783 6756 . NNNN |
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