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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/19 1950Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS/IR 1945Z; AMSU 1820Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING OVER THE VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY ENHANCEMENTS SHOW A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE LINE NEAR 18.4N/65.8W IN THE GOES16 WATER VAPOR CHANNELS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLING TOPS OVER THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO/VIEQUES. SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE A MAXIMUM OVER THE VIEQUES WITH THE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOP OVER VIEQUES ISLAND. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR BUOYANCY WITH PW QUANTITIES EXCEEDING 2.20 INCHES OBSERVED. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE VIEQUES AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. OUTFLOW FROM THIS STORM MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND GENERATE MORE HEAVY RAIN. THE LIKELY RECIPIENT OF DEVELOPING STORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ON THE SW AND NE CORNER WOULD BE THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND TO PUERTO RICO'S EAST END. AMSU RAINFALL RATE ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.65 INCHES PER HOUR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER QUANTITIES ARE 2.25 INCHES MEANING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL IN AN HOUR EXCEEDS 2.0 INCHES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1950-0000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BLOSSOMING CONVECTION OVER THE VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICOS EASTERN PORTIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY EXACERBATING AN ALREADY DANGEROUS SITUATION BY ADDING MORE RAIN TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THE EVENING AND WILL BE MONITORED AND REASSESSED WHEN 00Z DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE MOST IMMEDIATE AREA OF CONCERN IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1860 6728 1783 6759 1782 6535 1857 6513 1859 6729 . NNNN |
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