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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/19 1300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR; RADAR 1252; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MORNING GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE CLEARLY SHOWS A COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IN THE CLOUD FEATURES CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO. THE IR CHANNELS SHOW COOLING TOPS OVER THE VIEQUES AND THE USVI WHILE ENHANCED CHANNELS SHOW A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. UPWARD MOTIONS RESULTING FROM THESE CYCLONIC FEATURES, ADDED ENERGY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST UNSTABLE MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT, CAN LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CAPE EXCEEDS 267 J/KG, BUOYANT LIFTED INDEX OF -7C, PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.30 INCHES, WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES CLOSE TO SATURATION IN THE MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHWEST. INTERACTION OF THIS WAVE, THE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE WAVE OF HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SEEN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD ALL OF THE FEATURES INTERACT AND TRIGGER BETTER UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER PUERTO RICO. AS UPPER WINDS FLOW OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, LOWER LEVEL WIND COMPONENTS OPPOSE THE WINDS ALOFT. WEAKER WIND VELOCITIES ALOFT AT 250MB AT 5KTS MAY RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1300-2000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...1252Z RADAR SHOWS APPROACHING CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RADAR ECHO PATTERN REVEALS INFLOW AHEAD OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OVER THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1858 6712 1785 6753 1771 6547 1838 6495 1857 6713 . NNNN |
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