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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/02/19 1045Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09/13;AMSU 0620Z;RADAR;OBS;MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AT 09Z TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONFINING DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE STORM ARE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND, WHILE WINDS FROM 700-500MB ARE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AND ABOVE 500MB ARE SOUTHEASTERLY. A 06Z RAOB FROM PHTO SHOWED PW OF 2.26 INCHES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN GOES IR IMAGERY, THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND, ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATELY COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN AMSU PASS FROM 0620Z SHOWS THAT PW VALUES ARE LIKELY MAXED OUT FOR NOW, AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD. THAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES IN A CLUSTER NEAR 17.3N/154.5W, OF AS MUCH AS 1.4 INCHES/HR. RADAR SHOWS POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1045-1845Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS AREAS OF THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS TROPICAL STORM ERICK BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER FROM LAND, WITH HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW ESPECIALLY FOCUSED BELOW 500MB WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR EVEN FROM MODEST CONVECTION,ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. 6-HOUR OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR, BUT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD STILL BE SUBJECT TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE MORNING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2412 16096 2068 15423 1806 15437 1801 15444 2134 16099 . NNNN |
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