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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/02/19 1918Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 CH09/13;AMSU 1359Z;OBS;MC . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS MOVING GRADUALLY WESTWARD, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN COOLING AS NOTED IN GOES IR IMAGERY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE ITSELF. AN AMSU PASS AT 1359Z SHOWED AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH/HR WITHIN THIS CONVECTION, AND IR TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER AT THAT TIME. THE SAME AMSU PASS ALSO NOTED PW VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES AND ABOVE BEGINNING TO CROSS THE AREA, AND THIS IS VALIDATED BY THE 12Z RAOB FROM TJSJ, WHICH REPORTED PW OF 2.01 INCHES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THAT SOUNDING ALSO GIVING UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG, WHICH LIKELY HAS INCREASED DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SW PUERTO RICO HAS ALSO BEGUN OCCURRING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1920-0130Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA, SPREADING EAST TO WEST. RAIN RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, INCREASING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE OPPOSED BY WEAK WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL WINDS, WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPER CONVECTION SLOW-MOVING. AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1909 6745 1888 6433 1736 6433 1760 6729 1765 6747 . NNNN |
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