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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/06/19 1843Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 190806/1810 GOES16 CH14 IR_11.2 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS WITH A CONVECTIVE CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH WEST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION HAS PROVIDED SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SUPPORTED FOR BRIEF CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED SBCAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH LI EQUAL TO NEGATIVE 7,ML LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM, AND TPW GREATER THAN 1.70" SUPPORTING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND. THE FLOW ALSO APPEARED FAIRLY UNI DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500 MB WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-2200Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE MEAN WIND FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOST CONVECTIVE CELL PROGRESSION FROM THE EAST AND THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND. DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT IS LIKELY THAT FURTHER CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND TILL THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DIURNAL INFLUENCE DISSIPATES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1908 6423 1726 6420 1714 6772 1906 6783 . NNNN |
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