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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/09/19 0232Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH09/13/WV;RAOBS;RADAR;JL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH NEWLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. GOES-16 IR IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE COOLING AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE ISLAND. PER GOES-16 WV IMAGERY, POCKETS OF DEEP MOISTURE WERE VISIBLE POPPING UP SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND WERE EXTENDING NORTH AND NORTHWEST. RECENT RADAR DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. LATEST AMSU RAIN RATE PRODUCT ALSO DEPICTS AERIAL AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1+ IN/HR ASSOCIATED WITH CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. GPS PWS WERE NEARING 2" OVER THE ISLAND WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25" IN THE WATER AROUND THE ISLAND AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM TJSJ, WHICH REPORTED PW OF 1.91 INCHES. AMPLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE SOUNDING REPORTING 2926 J/KG CAPE, WHICH MAY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0830Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA, SPREADING ON SHORE FROM THE SOUTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO WIND PROFILES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDING. OROGRAPHIC IMPACTS MAY FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN RATES AND INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE OPPOSED BY WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, WHICH SHOULD HELP SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND, THUS ENABLING PRECIPITATION TO ACCUMULATE. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1856 6550 1788 6573 1788 6754 1853 6727 1855 6728 . NNNN |
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