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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/17/19 1546Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 190817/1511 GOES16 CH14 IR_11.2 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRADE WIND AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOIST FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED GROWING COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS PROGRESSING OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE SAN JUAN REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE REGION OBSERVED IN LATEST GOES16 WV IMAGERY HAS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SUPPORTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS OBSERVED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EAST OVER PUERTO RICO OVER THE USVI AND ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED SBCAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG AS WELL AS TPW GREATER THAN 1.80" AND LI= -7. THE EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALSO APPEARS FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE OVER THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1530-2130Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE CELL CLUSTER APPEARS PROGRESSIVE BUT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DOWNSTREAM. THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASE CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT AND EAST TO WEST PROGRESSION LIKELY OVER THE ISLAND UNTIL DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1964 6779 1931 6381 1685 6374 1702 6783 . NNNN |
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