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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/19/19 1633Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS/WV 1615Z; AMSU/SSMIS; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES 16 SATELLITE SHOWS BLOSSOMING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH COOLING TOPS ON IR OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.25 INCHES PER SSMIS/AMSU SENSOR MEASUREMENTS CORRELATES WITH THE TJSJ SOUNDING OF 2.20 INCHES WITH CLOSE TO 1800 J/KG, WITH AN UNSTABLE LIFTED INDEX OF -5C AT 500MB, WITH A THETA E AT 850MB OF 346KELVIN. A TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO HELPING TO AID UPWARD MOTIONS AND GENERATE TROPICAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WOULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS OVERFLOW OF CREEKS IN CANYONS AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SAN JUAN MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED, ADDING ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1633-2030Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PUERTO RICO IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE ISLAND IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1866 6722 1784 6757 1780 6540 1862 6508 1864 6723 . NNNN |
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