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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/28/19 1204Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: AMSU/SSMIS; GOES-16 WV/IR; HYDROESTIMATOR; eTRaP; GPSPWS;JL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH DORIAN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-16 WV IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS TROPICAL STORM DORIAN APPROACHING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DORIAN SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE NHC SUGGESTS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PR, WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WHICH WILL BRING A FLOODING THREAT TO PR. THE ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL PRODUCT 0900Z RUN SUGGESTS AROUND 1600Z RAINFALL TOTALING UNDER 1 INCH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. THE FOLLOWING 6 HOURS, UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 2200Z, RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL TOTAL NEARLY 2" AS THE CENTER OF DORIAN PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF PR. EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND, AS THE eTRaP SUGGESTS 2-3" OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS, AND OVER 1" FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE ISLAND. OVERALL 24-HOUR FORECAST FROM THE ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL PRODUCT 0900Z RUN SUGGESTS 2-3" FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND, WITH 4-6" TOTALS FALLING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. . ADDITIONALLY, THE HYDROESTIMATOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 5.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LAST 6 HOURS TO THE ESE OF PR NEAR THE VI. GPSPWS SHOW INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5", AND GOES-16 IR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER DORIAN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VI. HRW 1-HOUR PRECIP TOTAL MODEL SUGGESTS HOURLY TOTALS OVER THE VI AND PR COULD REACH UP TO 2" AS DORIAN'S CENTER TRACKS OVER THE ISLAND, THOUGH THE PREDOMINANT HOURLY TOTALS ARE TRENDING NEAR 0.5" OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND AND UPWARDS OF 1.5" IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF PR. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1200-1800Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO THE NHC AND VARIOUS PRECIPITATION MODELS SUGGEST DORIAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE VI THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE STORM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE ISLAND, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VI AND PR, WITH TOTALS OF 4-6" EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF PR AND THE VI. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1866 6722 1784 6757 1780 6540 1862 6508 1864 6723 . NNNN |
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