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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/28/19 1745Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 1720Z GOES-16 IR/WV;1700Z AMSU/SSMIS; HYDROESTIMATOR;1500Z eTRaP;1600Z GPSPWS; HRW PW;JL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...################## . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...############## LATEST HYDRO-ESTIMATOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUE DEPICTS 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 4.5 INCHES OVER THE VI MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. 1700Z AMSU IMAGERY DEPICTS AERIAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5 IN/HR OVER THE VI, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN RATES MAY EXIST WITHIN DORIAN. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING RAINFALL IS THE SURGE IN GPS PWS, WHICH INCREASED FROM 1.5 INCHES ON AVERAGE TO 2.25 INCHES WITHIN 8 HOURS. NHC TRACK SUGGESTS DORIAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST, CLIPPING THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF PR, WITH OUTER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE EASTERN SIDE OF PR. AS DORIAN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RAIN RATES SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND. THROUGH 2100Z, eTRaP SUGGESTS UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND 4-6 FOR THE VI JUST EAST OF PR. FOR THE EVENING HOURS, AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND AND A SMALL REGION OF 2-4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEYOND 0300Z, WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO PULL AWAY, AS INTERPOLATED VALUES OF ABOUT 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ARE ANTICIPATED. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A MAJOR THREAT AS HRW 1-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE MODELED TO REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE VI AND EASTERN HALF OF PR. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-0000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS DORIAN PROGRESSES OVER THE VI AND PR. FF THREAT IS POSSIBLE AS RAIN RATES INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATES OVER THE ISLAND. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1866 6722 1784 6757 1780 6540 1862 6508 1864 6723 . NNNN |
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