|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/29/19 1339Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 1310Z; SSMIS/AMSU; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HURRICANE DORIAN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 VISIBLE/IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OUTER BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HURRICANE DORIAN'S CIRCULATION CENTER. SSMIS/AMSU SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES RANGE 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES WITHIN AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BAND ORIENTED NNE-SSW OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO, THE VIEQUES AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT SAN JUAN INDICATED A 2.1 INCH PW, CAPE 2000 J/KG, LI=-6C SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH THE OUTER BAND OF DORIAN IN TERMS OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT. 12Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ORGANIZED CLOUD BANDS SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAINS ON THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO COULD RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MOISTURE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM IN THE OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE DORIAN, DAYTIME HEATING MAY ADD ENERGY TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, LEADING TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1340-2000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE APPROACHING OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE DORIAN AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THE STORM CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, BANDS OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE DORIAN'S CIRCULATION CENTER MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GENERATE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE APPARENT MOTION OF THE STORM INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY HELP LIMIT THE ACTIVITY TO A SHORT DURATION EVENT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES STILL POSING A THREAT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIEQUES/USVI WILL SEE THE IMPACTS EARLY IN THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH THE BAND IMPACTING ALL OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OUTLOOK. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6721 1857 6721 1853 6512 1786 6533 1790 6743 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|