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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/06/19 1521Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 190906/1440 GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TRADE WIND CONVECTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEN IN THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE ISLAND. GOES16 IR IMAGERY OBSERVED COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1800 J/KG AS WELL AS TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 2.10" OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST GOES16 WV IMAGERY OBSERVED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOIST INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE REGION ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED IN 12Z SOUNDING IS LIGHT WITH 10 KTS OR LESS OBSERVED WHICH COULD SUPPORT SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE ISLAND IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM INCOMING TROPICAL WAVE AND INCREASED DIURNAL INFLUENCE. STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A SLOW SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OVER THE ISLAND IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 16Z TO 19Z PRIOR TO DECREASE IN DIURNAL INFLUENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1893 6749 1890 6417 1752 6401 1760 6758 . NNNN |
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