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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/08/19 1732Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 1710Z; RADAR 1727Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FLASH FLOODING . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N/60W NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH CLOUDS AND DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR OVER THE CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AS OF 17Z ARE GROWING IN COVERAGE. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WERE ALL FAVORABLE IN THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM SAN JUAN OVER TWO INCHES PW, 2700 J/KG CAPE, 500MB LI=-6C WITH AN DEEP EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUANTITIES INDICATED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM BEING ADVECTED TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE EAST, AND WILL ENHANCE LIFT AS IS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. THE MOST RECENT IMAGES INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF COOLING TOPS IN A GROWING MASS OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS DEVELOPING CELL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1730-2330Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND AMPLE INSTABILITY BEING FED ON LIGHT UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SATURATED GROUND. URBAN FLOODING WITH EXCESS RUNOFF FROM SMALL STREAMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL IS LIKELY WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH STORM CELLS BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA, AND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OR QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1853 6720 1849 6514 1786 6535 1790 6747 1852 6720 . NNNN |
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