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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/10/19 1800Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 WV/VISIBLE 1740Z; SSMIS/AMSU PW; RADAR; RAOB 12Z; FS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST AND LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH SE-NW ORIENTATION ON RADAR. MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH SEEN ON SATELLITE IS INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN FORMING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN JUAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH FACING SLOPES. AN UPPER LEVEL 250MB TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER PUERTO RICO WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST FORCING MOISTURE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH FACING COASTLINE. OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTIANS. PW QUANTITIES ESTIMATED BY THE SSMIS/AMSU SENSORS SHOW 1.6 INCHES OVER THE ISLAND, 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE COASTLINE, AND 2.0 INCHES TO THE NORTH UPSTREAM, MOVING TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. THE ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION EXCEEDS 2300 J/KG; THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-2200Z...MEDUIM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO METROPOLITAN AREA. SLOW MOVING STORMS AND STATIONARY CONVECTION WILL CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1853 6722 1852 6721 1849 6513 1789 6532 1791 6748 . NNNN |
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