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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/11/19 1830Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 1800Z; RADAR; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING TOPS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON IR OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IS PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLAND AND IS GENERATING UPWARD MOTION AS POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCES UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AS THE SHORT WAVE DRIFTS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE USVI. LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN FLOWING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WHILE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER, 2400 J/KG CAPE AND MODESTLY BUOYANT -6C LIFTED INDEX WILL FACTOR INTO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO ARE BACK BUILDING TO THE NORTH AS STORM CELL PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND URBAN RUN OFF WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1845-2100Z...LOWER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FLASH FLOODING IS OF SOME CONCERN BECAUSE STORMS ARE BUILDING AS OTHERS COLLAPSE. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1852 6721 1850 6518 1789 6539 1792 6738 1851 6722 . NNNN |
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