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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/15/19 0714Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 IR/WV 0640Z; RADAR; SSMIS/AMSU . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER OAHU . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER HONOLULU COUNTY ON THE ISLAND OF MAUI IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TRAVELING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL 250 MB JET STREAK IS PASSING OVER MAUI WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION SUPPLYING LIFT WITH THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SET TO GENERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG WITH THE EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB AND AT THE SURFACE FORCING THE MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN FACING TERRAIN MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING MAY AID UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FF WARNINGS WERE POSTED EARLIER FOR HONOLULU COUNTY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0715-0915Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF OAHU FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. RECENT RADAR ECHOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED ELEMENTS IN THE AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL AS OF 0707Z. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE OF OAHU WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2255 15854 1888 15304 1886 15598 2250 16112 2253 16109 . NNNN |
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