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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/16/19 1513Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 190916/1440 GOES16 CH14 IR_11.2 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 IR,VIS, AND WV IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF COLD/HIGH CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A REGION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WARM MOIST OUTFLOW OUT AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS OBSERVED HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO AREA. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED SBCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG, AS WELL AS LI=-7, AND TPW AROUND 2.00" SUPPORTIVE OF A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1530-2130Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE OUTLOOK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AFFECTED BY AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INFLUENCE AS WELL AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROPICAL WAVE AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND. THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES COULD LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FF OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OBSERVED IN LATEST UA ROAB SOUNDING ARE AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE IN A EAST TO WEST DIRECTION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LIKELY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING IF MOSIT LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1898 6748 1865 6423 1751 6438 1754 6761 . NNNN |
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