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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/19 0126Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 WV/IR 0110;AMSU 1620Z;RADAR;GPS-PWS 0000Z;JL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF PR IS CLOSING IN ON PUERTO RICO, THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. MAIN IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE THE WEST OVER DR AND HAITI, BUT LINGERING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FOR PR OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST AMSU PASS FROM 1620Z DEPICTS AERIAL AVERAGE RAINRATES AT LEAST 1.50 IN/HR JUST SOUTH OF PR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ENCROACHING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORE. DESPITE THE MODERATELY HEAVY RAINRATES FROM THE EARLIER AMSU PASS, GOES-16 IR IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS, SIGNIFYING THE DETERIORATION OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, GOES-16 WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS DRYING PATTERN WITH CLOUD FEATURES PRIOR TO MOVEMENT OVER PR, POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL PRODUCTION. GPS BLENDED PW PRODUCT SUGGESTS VALUES FALL WITHIN 1.5-2" OVER THE ISLAND, AND A STREAM OF HIGHER PW, TOPPING 2", ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FLOWING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENABLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0126-0721Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS REMNANT DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH COME ASHORE. RAIN RATES WITHIN CELLS THAT DEVELOP CAN BE HEAVY AND POSE FF THREAT TO URBAN AREAS AND REGIONS WITH STEEP TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1880 6748 1873 6512 1751 6515 1764 6759 1876 6748 . NNNN |
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