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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/22/19 1142Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 CH13 1120Z;GPSPW;TSJU RADAR;OBS;MC . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...TROPICAL STORM JERRY RAIN BAND ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-EAST IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JERRY ORIENTED APPROXIMATELY N-S ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BEEN REPEATEDLY DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BAND, MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS, AND QUICKLY DECAYING. IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN AS COLD AS -68C WITH EACH PULSE. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS MINIMAL ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS CONVECTION. GPSPW MEASUREMENTS AND EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST PWAT LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. OBS SO FAR SUGGEST HOURLY RAIN RATES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1145-1600Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SO FAR, THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS REMAINED WELL OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BASED ON TSJU RADAR DATA AND THE LOCATION OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS BEFORE THEY ARE BLOWN SOUTHWARD BY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER, NEW CONVECTION COULD FORM NEARER TO OR OVER VIEQUES OR THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO, ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS BAND WEAKENS ENTIRELY AND NO NEW CONVECTION FORMS. SHOULD FURTHER CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER LAND, WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE, HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, ALTHOUGH THE PULSING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS TO ISOLATED AREAS. THE THREAT IS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE DURATION OF THE OUTLOOK. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1871 6788 1863 6518 1766 6519 1770 6813 1866 6788 . NNNN |
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