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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/24/19 0757Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16; BLENDED TPW; RADAR; LEE . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS...SERFC . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST G-16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH TD KAREN EDGING CLOSER TO PR AND VI. DRIER AIR ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT/FILL IN. RADAR INDICATED ORGANIZED SHOWERS FILLING IN SE OF THE AREA. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0800-1400Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS TD KAREN APPROACHES THE REGION SE TO NW. SATELLITE DERIVED TPW PROD SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 2.0" THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WHEREAS THE LOWEST 10K FT IS SATURATED...ABOVE THIS LEVEL THERE REMAINS SOME DRIER AIR AS PER TJSJ OOZ SOUNDING. EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS THOUGH. AS SUCH...SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES FEEDING INTO TD KAREN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT WITH TIME. THESE WARM RAIN PROCESS CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING 1/2-1" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND ALTHOUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY...THE BANDING FEATURES WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AS TD KAREN APPROACHES. THIS ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL EXACERBATE LOCAL FF ISSUES ESP. IF/ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES WHERE GAPS IN CLOUDS OCCUR RAISING LOCAL INSTABILITY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1871 6788 1863 6518 1766 6519 1770 6813 1866 6788 . NNNN |
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