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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/24/19 1354Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: RADAR/GOES-16 IR/WV 1330Z/GPSPW 1146Z/1200Z RAOBS/JL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-16 IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DENSE AREA OF COOL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND SMALLER DISSIPATING CLOUD TOPS MOVING WNW OVER THE VI AND ONTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF PR. RADAR INDICATES SOME RAINFALL OVER THE VI AND EASTERN PR WITH PERIODIC LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORM CLUSTERS. GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE SMALL CELLS THAT PASSED OVER THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND VIEQUES HAVE SINCE LIGHTENED PRIOR TO MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO'S EASTERN SHORE. GOES-16 WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN CENTER, WITH THE LIGHTER CELLS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER VI LOSING MOST OF THEIR MOISTURE PRIOR TO THEIR WNW MOTION INTO PR. THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION AND LARGE-SCALE CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF PR, BUT KAREN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNE OVER PR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OUTER BANDS PASS OVER THE VI AND PR, EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR PERIODICALLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY, AS THE CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE ISLAND IN A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FASHION, EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BRING MUDSLIDES, MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO PR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF PR WHICH HELPED IN KEEPING THE ISLAND MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING, MOIST AIR, VISIBLE IN GOES-16 WV IMAGERY, IS ENCROACHING ON THE ISLAND AND OVERTAKING THE DRY AREAS. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TJSJ DEPICTED PW OF 2.28 IN AND A SATURATED LOW LEVEL WITH SLOW DUE WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS BEFORE WINDS BECOME NW ABOVE APPROX. 500 MB. THE SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTS CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 2401 J/KG, LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTED BY DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE ISLAND, AS SEEN IN THE GOES-16 VIS IMAGERY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400-2000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT ROUNDS OF PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS AS OUTER CELLS/BANDS MAKE LANDFALL ON VI/PR AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM CENTER. EXPECT FREQUENCY OF CELLS AND BANDS TO INCREASE AS STORM NEARS AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AND STORMS TO INCREASE AS STORM STRENGTHENS. BY AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD EXPECT KAREN TO START TO COME ON SHORE OF PR FROM THE SOUTH MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH SLOWLY. HEAVY RAINFALL BRINGING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS TO BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND REGIONS OF STEEP TERRAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO LACK OF CLOUD COVER AS SEEN IN GOES-16 VIS IMAGERY. OROGRAPHIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO AID IN RAINFALL RATES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1871 6788 1863 6518 1766 6519 1770 6813 1866 6788 . NNNN |
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