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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/24/19 1959Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 1920Z GOES-16 IR/WV;1421Z AMSU;1941Z RADAR;1751Z BLENDED TPW;WRH SFC OBS JL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...TROPICAL STORM KAREN OVER PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FROM PR SUGGEST VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1-1.5", WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEARLY 2" ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND, AND A CENTER OF NEARLY 3.8" AT LAGO DE MATRULLAS RESIDING AT 2377 FT IN ELEVATION. RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR WERE OBSERVED IN THE LATEST AMSU AERIAL AVERAGE RAIN RATE PRODUCT. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING KAREN HAS STRENGTHENED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER THE AMSU PASS. PW HAS CONTINUED TO CREEP UPWARDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES, AND THE 1800Z SOUNDING FROM TJSJ DEPICTS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.44 IN. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND BANDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ROLLING ACROSS THE ISLAND, AS SEEN IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY, CAPE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE TS, WITH VALUES FROM THE LATEST RAOB COMING IN AT 1148 J/KG. STILL, AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM, WITH DUE WEST WINDS THAT HAVE INCREASED IN SPEED SINCE THE 1200Z SOUNDING. AS KAREN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND, OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO AND MOVE ASHORE THE NEIGHBORING VI. THE CENTER OF THE LOW CIRCULATION AND THE MOST INTENSE AREA OF CONVECTION, VISIBLE IN BOTH RADAR AND RECENT GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY, REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND BUT IS PROGRESSING NORTH. OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXPECT THE CORE OF THE TS TO PASS OVER PR BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, EXPECT TRAILING BANDS OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL TO BRING ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE VI AND PR. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-0200Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND WITH A LARGE AREA OF INTENSE COLD CONVECTION ATOP THE LLC. FF THREAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MOST INTENSE AREA OF CONVECTION CROSSES THE ISLAND, AND THE THREAT PERSISTS INTO THIS EVENING AS TRAILING BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO ALREADY SOAKED AREA. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAINFALL ATOP HIGH ELEVATIONS, EXPECT MUDSLIDES TO BE ISSUES AND FLOODING TO BE ENHANCED IN AREAS OF STEEPER SLOPE AND GREATEST ELEVATION DUE TO OROGPRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1871 6788 1863 6518 1766 6519 1770 6813 1866 6788 . NNNN |
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