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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/25/19 0158Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: G-16, RADAR; LEE . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TS KAREN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT G-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS/REINVIGORATING CONVECTION ON THIS N SIDE OF PR ASSOCIATED WITH TS KAREN. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SAB POSN SUGGESTING THAT TS KAREN HAS REEMERGED OFF THE NE COAST. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-0800Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR. IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWING A WHOPPING 2.6" PW. INDEED SATELLITE DERIVED TPW INDICATING THAT THE ISLAND UNDERSTANDABLY RESIDES WITHIN A TROPICAL PLUME WITH VALUES GREATER THAN 2.5". WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND 5" IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 3" JUST S OF TJSJ LOCAL FF ISSUES HAVE PROB OCCURRED. ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD CONSIDERING TS KAREN REMAINS RATHER ORGANIZED, MODEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILE--WITH FZG LEVEL NEAR 16KFT. THESE WARM RAIN PROCESS CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1.0" P/HR IN THE HEAVIEST WHICH COULD EXACERBATE LOCAL FLOODING/RUNOFF ISSUES ESP. IN FAVORABLE TERRAIN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AS TS KAREN PULLS N, LL QUASI-STATIONARY CONFLUENCE FEATURE(S)/FEEDER BAND(S) MAY ALIGN ALONG THE ISLAND AND CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT ANY NEW EMERGING THREATS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1890 6702 1865 6507 1755 6549 1785 6751 . NNNN |
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