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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/26/19 0245Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 IR 10.4/11.2; RADAR 0238Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...TROPICAL RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE IMPACTS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING STORM TOPS ON INFRARED ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED LINE INDICATING SOME POTENTIALLY GENEROUS RAIN PRODUCING STORMS AS EARLIER PARAMETERS FROM THE TJSJ BALLOON SOUNDING INDICATED 2.32 INCH PW QUANTITIES WITH A NARROW MOISTURE PROFILE AND MODEST BUOYANT LIFT. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE INITIALLY AFFECTED WITH A HEAVY RAIN BAND; HOWEVER, AS THE MOISTURE AXIS ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG PUERTO RICO, AND MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IS FORCED UP THE SOUTH FACING TERRAIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN FLOODING TOO AS THE LATEST WAVE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ORIENTS ITSELF OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0245-0845Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0238Z SHOWS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERING THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL, MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAINBANDS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1890 6702 1865 6507 1755 6549 1785 6751 . NNNN |
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