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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/29/19 0711Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 CH09,CH13 0640Z;RADAR;OBS;MC . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS NORTH AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO, AS SEEN VIA DEVELOPING COLD CLOUD TOPS ON GOES IR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z TJSJ RAOB INDICATED PW OF 2.41 INCHES, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GOES-DERIVED PW OF AROUND 2.3 INCHES WITH RECENT IMAGERY. THE 00Z RAOB ALSO INDICATED A VIRTUALLY SATURATED PROFILE UP TO 300MB, SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF OVER 2800 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUCH AS IS ONGOING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. WIND SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE ARE GENERALLY 20KT OR LESS, WITH STEERING CURRENTS FROM THE NE, ALLOWING FOR SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0710-1215Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SW, ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO, WITH THE INITIAL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAIN, AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD ALLOW FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS, EXACERBATED IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER RUNOFF. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1889 6767 1884 6458 1751 6449 1768 6798 1885 6772 1885 6772 . NNNN |
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