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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/04/19 1959Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 WV 1940Z; SSMIS/AMSU PW; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW BLOSSOMING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO. SSMIS/AMSU PRECIPITABLE WATER QUANTITIES UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEEP LAYERED FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM AN EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ARE RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES OVER THE ISLAND TO 2.10 INCHES PLUS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. THE MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED NEARLY 2500J/KG CAPE, -7C LI, AND 1.9 INCH PW. RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATE A DISSIPATING STORM SW OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AND A DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS MOMENT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE ALLOWING STORMS TO GROW AS UPWARD MOTION IS FACILITATED BY UPPER WINDS REMOVING MASS AT THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO URBAN FLASH FLOODING AS COOLING TOPS ARE INDICATED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GROWING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAY BRIEFLY GENERATE DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOSER TO SUNSET WITH DECREASING UPWARD AIR CURRENTS, THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD, INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAY EXPERIENCE DOWNPOURS SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS, WITH SOME LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6512 1785 6526 1784 6747 1856 6731 1855 6732 . NNNN |
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