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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/11/19 1046Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-17 CH09/10/13 1030Z;AMSU 0507Z;RADAR;OBS;MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...REPEATED TROPICAL RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS INDICATING DEEP CONVECTION AMONG AND TO THE S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MASS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH A CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS, WITH AN OVERNIGHT AMSU PASS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 2-2.5 INCHES BROADLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SAME PASS SUGGESTED AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 0.5 IN/HR, SUGGESTING RATES ABOVE 1 IN/HR IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR OBS. GOES WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS, AS WELL AS A HINT OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS, AND A SFC TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD NEAR 160W TO A SFC LOW ABOUT 1100MI S OF KAUAI. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1045-1800Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE SFC TROF AND UPPER FLOW PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY, WHICH IS BEING MAINTAINED BY THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS OR PROGRESSES OVER LAND. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN AND POOR RUNOFF WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2299 16051 2299 16051 2129 16119 1799 15518 2038 15414 . NNNN |
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